OPCH
Option Care Health, Inc.
$31.09
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 29.2% above fair value
You pay
$31.09
Bear
$19.24
Fair
$24.05
Bull
$28.86
Bear
$19.24
-38.1%
$1.27 × 15x P/E
Fair
$24.05
-22.6%
$1.27 × 19x P/E
Bull
$28.86
-7.2%
$1.27 × 23x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
18.9x
1.27$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$28.78
Divergence from AlphaVal
16%
Summary
Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.27, the base-case value is $24.05 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples