OOMA
Ooma, Inc.
$19.72
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 149.1% above fair value
You pay
$19.72
Bear
$4.97
Fair
$7.92
Bull
$10.95
Bear
$4.97
-74.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$7.92
-59.9%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$10.95
-44.5%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
54.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.4%
vs 11.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$25.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
69%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $7.92 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 231% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $25.40 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 69% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions