OOMA
Ooma, Inc.
$23.38
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 194.0% above fair value
You pay
$23.38
Bear
$5.00
Fair
$7.95
Bull
$11.00
Bear
$5.00
-78.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$7.95
-66.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$11.00
-53.0%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
63.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
24.4%
vs 11.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$25.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
68%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $7.95 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 231% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $25.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 68% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions