ONTO
Onto Innovation Inc.
$262.25
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.4% below fair value
You pay
$262.25
Bear
$162.77
Fair
$321.32
Bull
$540.27
Bear
$162.77
-37.9%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$321.32
+22.5%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$540.27
+106.0%
32% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (24% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
44.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $331.67 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $321.32 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions