ONTO
Onto Innovation Inc.
$295.74
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 9.9% below fair value
You pay
$295.74
Bear
$166.22
Fair
$328.13
Bull
$551.73
Bear
$166.22
-43.8%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$328.13
+11.0%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$551.73
+86.6%
32% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (24% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
50.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.4%
vs 24.5% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $365.75 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $328.13 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions