ONTO
Onto Innovation Inc.
$313.71
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 1.6% below fair value
You pay
$313.71
Bear
$161.46
Fair
$318.73
Bull
$535.92
Bear
$161.46
-48.5%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$318.73
+1.6%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$535.92
+70.8%
32% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
24.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (24% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
53.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
24.3%
vs 24.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$387.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
18%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 24% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $318.73 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions