ONON
On Holding AG
$38.54
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 47.1% above fair value
You pay
$38.54
Bear
$22.92
Fair
$26.20
Bull
$29.47
Bear
$22.92
-40.5%
$0.74 × 21x P/E
Fair
$26.20
-32.0%
$0.74 × 24x P/E
Bull
$29.47
-23.5%
$0.74 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
52.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $51.78 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.20 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $51.78 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CHF into USD using USDCHF at 1.2350 USD per CHF.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples