ONON
On Holding AG
$28.85
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 67.6% above fair value
You pay
$28.85
Bear
$15.07
Fair
$17.22
Bull
$19.37
Bear
$15.07
-47.8%
$0.72 × 21x P/E
Fair
$17.22
-40.3%
$0.72 × 24x P/E
Bull
$19.37
-32.9%
$0.72 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
24.0x
0.72$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
40.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$46.17
Divergence from AlphaVal
63%
Summary
Applying a 24x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.72, the base-case value is $17.22 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $46.17 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CHF into USD using USDCHF at 1.2369 USD per CHF.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples