ONON
On Holding AG
$39.81
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 6.1% below fair value
You pay
$39.81
Bear
$24.77
Fair
$42.38
Bull
$64.09
Bear
$24.77
-37.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$42.38
+6.4%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$64.09
+61.0%
25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
39.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $55.15 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $42.38 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $55.15 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CHF into USD using USDCHF at 1.2746 USD per CHF.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions