ONON
On Holding AG
$35.19
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 98.8% above fair value
You pay
$35.19
Bear
$15.49
Fair
$17.70
Bull
$19.91
Bear
$15.49
-56.0%
$0.74 × 21x P/E
Fair
$17.70
-49.7%
$0.74 × 24x P/E
Bull
$19.91
-43.4%
$0.74 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
24.0x
0.74$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
47.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (27 analysts)
$42.26
Divergence from AlphaVal
58%
Summary
Applying a 24x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.74, the base-case value is $17.70 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $42.26 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CHF into USD using USDCHF at 1.2091 USD per CHF.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples