OMF
OneMain Holdings, Inc.
$55.65
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 80.9% below fair value
You pay
$55.65
Bear
$271.81
Fair
$291.23
Bull
$329.92
Bear
$271.81
+388.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$291.23
+423.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$329.92
+492.8%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
6.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-6.2%
vs 3.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$63.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
360%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 4% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $291.23 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $63.33 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 360% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions