OMF
OneMain Holdings, Inc.
$59.95
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 86.4% below fair value
You pay
$59.95
Bear
$242.54
Fair
$440.27
Bull
$655.39
Bear
$242.54
+304.6%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$440.27
+634.5%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$655.39
+993.3%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
9.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-1.9%
vs 14.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $69.17 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $440.27 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $69.17 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 766% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions