OMER
Omeros Corporation
$11.46
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 33.5% below fair value
You pay
$11.46
Bear
$14.78
Fair
$17.25
Bull
$19.71
Bear
$14.78
+29.0%
$0.46 × 18x P/E
Fair
$17.25
+50.5%
$0.46 × 21x P/E
Bull
$19.71
+72.0%
$0.46 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.00 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $17.25 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $40.00 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples