OMCL
Omnicell, Inc.
$44.41
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 113.1% above fair value
You pay
$44.41
Bear
$16.68
Fair
$20.84
Bull
$25.02
Bear
$16.68
-62.4%
$0.70 × 10x P/E
Fair
$20.84
-53.1%
$0.70 × 12x P/E
Bull
$25.02
-43.7%
$0.70 × 15x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
63.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $57.20 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.84 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 1476%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $57.20 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 85% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples