OMCL
Omnicell, Inc.
$37.75
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 479.8% above fair value
You pay
$37.75
Bear
$5.21
Fair
$6.51
Bull
$7.81
Bear
$5.21
-86.2%
$0.52 × 10x P/E
Fair
$6.51
-82.8%
$0.52 × 12x P/E
Bull
$7.81
-79.3%
$0.52 × 15x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
12.5x
0.52$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
72.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$56.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
89%
Summary
Applying a 12x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.52, the base-case value is $6.51 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 1076%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $56.67 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples