OMCL
Omnicell, Inc.
$45.87
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 104.1% above fair value
You pay
$45.87
Bear
$17.99
Fair
$22.48
Bull
$26.96
Bear
$17.99
-60.8%
$0.70 × 12x P/E
Fair
$22.48
-51.0%
$0.70 × 15x P/E
Bull
$26.96
-41.2%
$0.70 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
65.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $58.50 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.48 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 1476%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $58.50 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 82% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples