OMAB
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V.
$103.20
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 57.4% below fair value
You pay
$103.20
Bear
$148.86
Fair
$242.27
Bull
$347.16
Bear
$148.86
+44.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$242.27
+134.7%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$347.16
+236.4%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
13.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $127.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $242.27 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $127.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 113% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from MXN into USD using USDMXN at 0.0578 USD per MXN.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions