OMAB
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V.
$104.14
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 49.3% below fair value
You pay
$104.14
Bear
$135.55
Fair
$205.26
Bull
$279.14
Bear
$135.55
+30.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$205.26
+97.1%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$279.14
+168.0%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
13.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.5%
vs 13.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $134.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $205.26 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $134.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 66% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from MXN into USD using USDMXN at 0.0572 USD per MXN.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions