OLPX
Olaplex Holdings, Inc.
$2.05
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 24.2% below fair value
You pay
$2.05
Bear
$2.71
Fair
$2.71
Bull
$2.88
Bear
$2.71
+32.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$2.71
+32.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$2.88
+40.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
28%
Implied Market Multiple
8.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1.89 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $2.71 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $1.89 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 54% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions