OLPX
Olaplex Holdings, Inc.
$2.07
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 20.1% below fair value
You pay
$2.07
Bear
$2.59
Fair
$2.59
Bull
$2.76
Bear
$2.59
+25.1%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$2.59
+25.1%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$2.76
+33.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
28%
Implied Market Multiple
8.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-1.0%
vs 3.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1.99 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $2.59 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $1.99 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 38% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions