OLPX
Olaplex Holdings, Inc.
$2.07
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 37.4% below fair value
You pay
$2.07
Bear
$3.31
Fair
$3.31
Bull
$3.53
Bear
$3.31
+59.8%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$3.31
+59.8%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$3.53
+70.4%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
28%
Implied Market Multiple
7.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-3.8%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$2.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
66%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $3.31 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $2.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 66% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions