OLO
Olo Inc.
$10.26
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 248.9% above fair value
You pay
$10.26
Bear
$2.58
Fair
$2.94
Bull
$3.37
Bear
$2.58
-74.9%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$2.94
-71.3%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$3.37
-67.2%
23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
17.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
303.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
48.6%
vs 17.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$9.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
67%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $2.94 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $9.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions