OLO
Olo Inc.
$10.26
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 132.8% above fair value
You pay
$10.26
Bear
$3.75
Fair
$4.41
Bull
$5.19
Bear
$3.75
-63.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$4.41
-57.0%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$5.19
-49.4%
23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
222.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $9.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $4.41 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $9.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions