OLN
Olin Corporation
$15.66
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 85.2% below fair value
You pay
$15.66
Bear
$81.36
Fair
$105.90
Bull
$128.16
Bear
$81.36
+419.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$105.90
+576.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$128.16
+718.4%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
5.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-9.5%
vs 7.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (35 analysts)
$19.22
Divergence from AlphaVal
451%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $105.90 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $19.22 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 451% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 49% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions