OLN
Olin Corporation
$26.03
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 61.9% below fair value
You pay
$26.03
Bear
$50.23
Fair
$68.36
Bull
$85.06
Bear
$50.23
+93.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$68.36
+162.6%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$85.06
+226.8%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
8.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.70 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $68.36 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $27.70 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 210% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions