OLN
Olin Corporation
$23.64
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 65.1% below fair value
You pay
$23.64
Bear
$50.84
Fair
$67.70
Bull
$83.08
Bear
$50.84
+115.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$67.70
+186.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$83.08
+251.4%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
7.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-4.0%
vs 7.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.60 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.70 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $27.60 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 208% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions