OLN
Olin Corporation
$17.64
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 84.5% below fair value
You pay
$17.64
Bear
$85.12
Fair
$113.80
Bull
$140.37
Bear
$85.12
+382.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$113.80
+545.3%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$140.37
+696.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
5.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-8.8%
vs 7.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (35 analysts)
$23.63
Divergence from AlphaVal
382%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $113.80 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $23.63 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 382% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 42% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions