OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.
$68.97
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 48.5% below fair value
You pay
$68.97
Bear
$110.22
Fair
$133.84
Bull
$157.46
Bear
$110.22
+59.8%
$4.18 × 28x P/E
Fair
$133.84
+94.1%
$4.18 × 34x P/E
Bull
$157.46
+128.3%
$4.18 × 40x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (34x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $109.00 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $133.84 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $109.00 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 30% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples