OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.
$91.86
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 30.5% below fair value
You pay
$91.86
Bear
$108.92
Fair
$132.26
Bull
$155.60
Bear
$108.92
+18.6%
$3.89 × 28x P/E
Fair
$132.26
+44.0%
$3.89 × 34x P/E
Bull
$155.60
+69.4%
$3.89 × 40x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
34.0x
3.89$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (34x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$102.30
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
Applying a 34x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.89, the base-case value is $132.26 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $102.30 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 29% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples