OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.
$81.84
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 42.1% below fair value
You pay
$81.84
Bear
$116.37
Fair
$141.31
Bull
$166.25
Bear
$116.37
+42.2%
$4.18 × 28x P/E
Fair
$141.31
+72.7%
$4.18 × 34x P/E
Bull
$166.25
+103.1%
$4.18 × 40x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (34x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $139.11 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $141.31 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples