OLED
Universal Display Corporation
$77.22
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.6% above fair value
You pay
$77.22
Bear
$60.91
Fair
$74.52
Bull
$87.37
Bear
$60.91
-21.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$74.52
-3.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$87.37
+13.1%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.7%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
17.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.3%
vs 8.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$122.60
Divergence from AlphaVal
39%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $74.52 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $122.60 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions