OKTA
Okta, Inc.
$232.13
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 59.6% above fair value
You pay
$232.13
Bear
$106.78
Fair
$145.47
Bull
$185.02
Bear
$106.78
-54.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$145.47
-37.3%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$185.02
-20.3%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
40.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.3%
vs 11.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (53 analysts)
$201.76
Divergence from AlphaVal
28%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $145.47 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $201.76 (from 53 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions