OKTA
Okta, Inc.
$138.63
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2.5% above fair value
You pay
$138.63
Bear
$100.29
Fair
$135.25
Bull
$170.68
Bear
$100.29
-27.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$135.25
-2.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$170.68
+23.1%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
23.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.9%
vs 11.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $123.47 from 51 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $135.25 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions