OKTA
Okta, Inc.
$130.61
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.1% below fair value
You pay
$130.61
Bear
$105.38
Fair
$142.13
Bull
$179.37
Bear
$105.38
-19.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$142.13
+8.8%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$179.37
+37.3%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
21.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.0%
vs 11.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$147.29
Divergence from AlphaVal
4%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $142.13 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions