OKTA
Okta, Inc.
$92.24
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 27.3% below fair value
You pay
$92.24
Bear
$94.41
Fair
$126.96
Bull
$159.87
Bear
$94.41
+2.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$126.96
+37.6%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$159.87
+73.3%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
14.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $103.90 from 51 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $126.96 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $103.90 (from 51 analysts). Our estimate is 34% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions