OKLO
Oklo Inc.
$57.19
Distressed or Transitioning
75%
Current EPS × Depressed Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 206.4% above fair value
You pay
$57.19
Bear
$12.58
Fair
$18.67
Bull
$24.76
Bear
$12.58
-78.0%
EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair
$18.67
-67.4%
Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull
$24.76
-56.7%
Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
931.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $91.50 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.67 per share.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $91.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 99% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case