OKE
ONEOK, Inc.
$89.23
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 26.8% below fair value
You pay
$89.23
Bear
$97.56
Fair
$121.95
Bull
$146.34
Bear
$97.56
+9.3%
$5.42 × 18x P/E
Fair
$121.95
+36.7%
$5.42 × 22x P/E
Bull
$146.34
+64.0%
$5.42 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.5x
5.42$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (39 analysts)
$98.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
24%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.42, the base-case value is $121.95 per share. DDM cross-check: $79.65.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $79.65 (below our primary estimate by 35%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples