OIS
Oil States International, Inc.
$8.33
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 28.1% above fair value
You pay
$8.33
Bear
$3.69
Fair
$6.50
Bull
$10.07
Bear
$3.69
-55.7%
FCF $15M × 10x
Fair
$6.50
-21.9%
FCF $19M × 13x
Bull
$10.07
+20.9%
FCF $24M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
27.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $12.67 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $6.50 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -74%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $12.67 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential