OIS
Oil States International, Inc.
$8.09
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 66.3% above fair value
You pay
$8.09
Bear
$2.78
Fair
$4.86
Bull
$7.48
Bear
$2.78
-65.6%
FCF $19M × 10x
Fair
$4.86
-39.9%
FCF $24M × 13x
Bull
$7.48
-7.5%
FCF $29M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (32 analysts)
$11.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
58%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $4.86 per share. Range: $2.78 (bear) to $7.48 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $11.67 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 44% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential