OIS
Oil States International, Inc.
$8.85
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 32.1% above fair value
You pay
$8.85
Bear
$3.80
Fair
$6.70
Bull
$10.38
Bear
$3.80
-57.0%
FCF $15M × 10x
Fair
$6.70
-24.3%
FCF $19M × 13x
Bull
$10.38
+17.3%
FCF $24M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
28.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $13.33 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $6.70 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -75%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $13.33 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 71% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential