OII
Oceaneering International, Inc.
$44.64
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 100.5% above fair value
You pay
$44.64
Bear
$14.09
Fair
$22.27
Bull
$32.54
Bear
$14.09
-68.4%
FCF $120M × 10x
Fair
$22.27
-50.1%
FCF $155M × 13x
Bull
$32.54
-27.1%
FCF $190M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
27.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (44 analysts)
$47.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
53%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $22.27 per share. Range: $14.09 (bear) to $32.54 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $47.00 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential