OGS
ONE Gas, Inc.
$80.38
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2.7% above fair value
You pay
$80.38
Bear
$68.50
Fair
$78.28
Bull
$88.07
Bear
$68.50
-14.8%
$4.68 × 14x P/E
Fair
$78.28
-2.6%
$4.68 × 16x P/E
Bull
$88.07
+9.6%
$4.68 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $88.67 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $78.28 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $49.22 (below our primary estimate by 34%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples