OGS
ONE Gas, Inc.
$72.65
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.9% above fair value
You pay
$72.65
Bear
$61.18
Fair
$69.92
Bull
$78.66
Bear
$61.18
-15.8%
$4.37 × 14x P/E
Fair
$69.92
-3.8%
$4.37 × 16x P/E
Bull
$78.66
+8.3%
$4.37 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
4.37$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$87.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
20%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.37, the base-case value is $69.92 per share. DDM cross-check: $47.08.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $47.08 (below our primary estimate by 33%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples