OGS
ONE Gas, Inc.
$82.50
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 5.8% above fair value
You pay
$82.50
Bear
$68.24
Fair
$77.99
Bull
$87.74
Bear
$68.24
-17.3%
$4.68 × 14x P/E
Fair
$77.99
-5.5%
$4.68 × 16x P/E
Bull
$87.74
+6.3%
$4.68 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $87.50 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $77.99 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $49.22 (below our primary estimate by 34%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples