OGN
Organon & Co.
$13.64
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 80.3% below fair value
You pay
$13.64
Bear
$59.42
Fair
$69.33
Bull
$79.23
Bear
$59.42
+335.7%
$4.95 × 12x P/E
Fair
$69.33
+408.3%
$4.95 × 14x P/E
Bull
$79.23
+480.9%
$4.95 × 16x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
14.0x
4.95$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
2.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$13.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
433%
Summary
Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.95, the base-case value is $69.33 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 588%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $13.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 433% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples