OGN
Organon & Co.
$13.43
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 76.7% below fair value
You pay
$13.43
Bear
$49.48
Fair
$57.73
Bull
$65.97
Bear
$49.48
+268.4%
$4.95 × 12x P/E
Fair
$57.73
+329.9%
$4.95 × 14x P/E
Bull
$65.97
+391.2%
$4.95 × 16x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
2.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.33 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $57.73 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 588%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $11.33 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 512% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples