OGE
OGE Energy Corp.
$48.65
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 22.1% above fair value
You pay
$48.65
Bear
$34.87
Fair
$39.85
Bull
$44.83
Bear
$34.87
-28.3%
$2.32 × 14x P/E
Fair
$39.85
-18.1%
$2.32 × 16x P/E
Bull
$44.83
-7.9%
$2.32 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $48.00 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $39.85 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $24.53 (below our primary estimate by 34%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples