OGE
OGE Energy Corp.
$47.95
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 29.2% above fair value
You pay
$47.95
Bear
$32.48
Fair
$37.12
Bull
$41.76
Bear
$32.48
-32.3%
$2.32 × 14x P/E
Fair
$37.12
-22.6%
$2.32 × 16x P/E
Bull
$41.76
-12.9%
$2.32 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
2.32$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$49.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
25%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.32, the base-case value is $37.12 per share. DDM cross-check: $24.58.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $24.58 (below our primary estimate by 34%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples