OFG OFG Bancorp
$50.07
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 36.7% below fair value

You pay $50.07
Bear $52.66
Fair $79.14
Bull $95.01
Bear $52.66 +5.2% ROTCE 11.9% → 1.86x TBV
Fair $79.14 +58.1% ROTCE 15.8% → 2.80x TBV
Bull $95.01 +89.8% ROTCE 18.2% → 3.36x TBV

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.63x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $79.14 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $52.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 65% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly