ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
$173.00
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 474.0% above fair value
You pay
$173.00
Bear
$21.92
Fair
$30.14
Bull
$38.36
Bear
$21.92
-87.3%
$5.48 × 4x
Fair
$30.14
-82.6%
$5.48 × 6x
Bull
$38.36
-77.8%
$5.48 × 7x
Adjust Assumptions
5.5x
5.48$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($5.48)
Implied Market Multiple
31.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (36 analysts)
$234.86
Divergence from AlphaVal
87%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $5.48 at a 6x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $30.14 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 8.3x.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 8.3x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $234.86 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 87% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing