ODD
Oddity Tech Ltd.
$16.99
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 90.0% above fair value
You pay
$16.99
Bear
$8.67
Fair
$8.94
Bull
$9.84
Bear
$8.67
-49.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$8.94
-47.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$9.84
-42.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
29%
Implied Market Multiple
20.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.8%
vs 3.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $10.54 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $8.94 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 31% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions