ODD
Oddity Tech Ltd.
$12.32
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 68.3% below fair value
You pay
$12.32
Bear
$34.73
Fair
$38.89
Bull
$47.32
Bear
$34.73
+181.9%
8% rev growth, 17% terminal margin
Fair
$38.89
+215.6%
6% rev growth, 23% terminal margin
Bull
$47.32
+284.1%
8% rev growth, 26% terminal margin
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (6%) × margin expansion to 23%
Terminal Value % of EV
55%
Implied Market Multiple
0.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $38.89 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $22.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 96% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep