ODD
Oddity Tech Ltd.
$18.28
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 90.6% above fair value
You pay
$18.28
Bear
$8.28
Fair
$9.59
Bull
$10.90
Bear
$8.28
-54.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$9.59
-47.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$10.90
-40.4%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
4.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
30%
Implied Market Multiple
21.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.6%
vs 4.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$11.21
Divergence from AlphaVal
14%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $9.59 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 31% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions