ODC
Oil-Dri Corporation of America
$101.98
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 36.7% above fair value
You pay
$101.98
Bear
$53.04
Fair
$74.58
Bull
$96.49
Bear
$53.04
-48.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$74.58
-26.9%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$96.49
-5.4%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
32.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.5%
vs 11.4% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $74.58 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions