AlphaMadera

OC Owens Corning

$124.50

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80%

Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 27.5% below fair value

You pay $124.50

Bear $133.56

Fair $171.72

Bull $209.88

Bear $133.56 +7.3% $9.54 × 14x

Fair $171.72 +37.9% $9.54 × 18x

Bull $209.88 +68.6% $9.54 × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

18.0x

Normalized EPS

9.54$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($9.54)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 13.1x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (43 analysts) $176.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 2%

Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $9.54 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $171.72 per share.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing