OBK
Origin Bancorp, Inc.
$47.32
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 38.6% above fair value
You pay
$47.32
Bear
$23.91
Fair
$34.15
Bull
$44.39
Bear
$23.91
-49.5%
ROTCE 5.2% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$34.15
-27.8%
ROTCE 6.9% → 0.68x TBV
Bull
$44.39
-6.2%
ROTCE 8.0% → 0.92x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (6.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.35x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $51.50 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.15 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (6.9%) is below the minimum investors require (8.3%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $51.50 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly