OBK
Origin Bancorp, Inc.
$51.83
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 73.9% above fair value
You pay
$51.83
Bear
$20.87
Fair
$29.81
Bull
$38.75
Bear
$20.87
-59.7%
ROTCE 5.2% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$29.81
-42.5%
ROTCE 6.9% → 0.67x TBV
Bull
$38.75
-25.2%
ROTCE 8.0% → 0.91x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
6.9%
8.4%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (6.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.47x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$56.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
47%
Summary
With ROTCE of 6.9% vs. 8.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.67x on $35.16 tangible book, implying $29.81 per share. DDM cross-check: $88.54.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (6.9%) is below the minimum investors require (8.4%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $88.54 (197% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $56.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly