OBDC
Blue Owl Capital Corporation
$9.89
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 75.1% below fair value
You pay
$9.89
Bear
$27.85
Fair
$39.78
Bull
$51.71
Bear
$27.85
+181.6%
ROTCE 6.4% → 0.58x TBV
Fair
$39.78
+302.2%
ROTCE 8.5% → 1.09x TBV
Bull
$51.71
+422.9%
ROTCE 9.8% → 1.40x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
8.5%
8.1%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (8.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.66x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$13.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
206%
Summary
With ROTCE of 8.5% vs. 8.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.09x on $14.90 tangible book, implying $39.78 per share. DDM cross-check: $22.77.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $22.77 (43% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $13.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 206% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly