OBDC
Blue Owl Capital Corporation
$11.03
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 89.2% below fair value
You pay
$11.03
Bear
$52.02
Fair
$102.12
Bull
$162.81
Bear
$52.02
+371.7%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$102.12
+825.8%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$162.81
+1376.1%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
8.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $13.50 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $102.12 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $13.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 821% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions