OBDC
Blue Owl Capital Corporation
$11.19
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 89.0% below fair value
You pay
$11.19
Bear
$51.97
Fair
$102.02
Bull
$162.65
Bear
$51.97
+364.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$102.02
+811.7%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$162.65
+1353.5%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
8.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-2.8%
vs 18.5% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $13.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $102.02 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $13.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 856% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions