NYT
The New York Times Company
$73.27
Platform & Compounding FCF
75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 6.4% above fair value
You pay
$73.27
Bear
$53.70
Fair
$68.89
Bull
$83.41
Bear
$53.70
-26.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$68.89
-6.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$83.41
+13.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
22.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.7%
vs 9.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $81.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $68.89 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions