NYMT
New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.
$7.11
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 67.9% below fair value
You pay
$7.11
Bear
$18.24
Fair
$22.15
Bull
$26.06
Bear
$18.24
+156.6%
$1.30 FFO × 14x
Fair
$22.15
+211.6%
$1.30 FFO × 17x
Bull
$26.06
+266.5%
$1.30 FFO × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.30) × default P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
5.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$11.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
97%
Summary
At $1.30 FFO/share with a 17x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $22.15 per share. Dividend yield: 14.5%.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 14.5% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $11.25 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 97% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify