NYMT
New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.
$7.11
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 65.1% below fair value
You pay
$7.11
Bear
$16.76
Fair
$20.35
Bull
$23.94
Bear
$16.76
+135.8%
$1.38 FFO × 14x
Fair
$20.35
+186.2%
$1.38 FFO × 17x
Bull
$23.94
+236.7%
$1.38 FFO × 20x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.38) × default P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
5.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.25 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.35 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 12.5% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $11.25 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 108% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify