NXT
Nextpower Inc.
$103.30
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 13.0% below fair value
You pay
$103.30
Bear
$76.60
Fair
$118.77
Bull
$166.99
Bear
$76.60
-25.9%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$118.77
+15.0%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$166.99
+61.7%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
28.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.7%
vs 16.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $151.82 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $118.77 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $151.82 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions