NXPI
NXP Semiconductors N.V.
$316.47
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 96.2% above fair value
You pay
$316.47
Bear
$111.69
Fair
$161.32
Bull
$210.96
Bear
$111.69
-64.7%
$9.73 × 12x + net cash
Fair
$161.32
-49.0%
$9.73 × 16x + net cash
Bull
$210.96
-33.3%
$9.73 × 20x + net cash
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($9.73)
Implied Market Multiple
32.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $242.60 from 46 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $161.32 per share.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Wall Street's average price target is $242.60 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing