NWSA News Corporation
$25.89
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 44.8% below fair value

You pay $25.89
Bear $37.54
Fair $46.93
Bull $56.32
Bear $37.54 +45.0% $2.31 × 18x P/E
Fair $46.93 +81.3% $2.31 × 22x P/E
Bull $56.32 +117.5% $2.31 × 27x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 11.2x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.70 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.93 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $31.70 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 64% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples