NWPX
NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.
$112.26
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 92.7% above fair value
You pay
$112.26
Bear
$48.26
Fair
$58.26
Bull
$66.96
Bear
$48.26
-57.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$58.26
-48.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$66.96
-40.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
27.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $60.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $58.26 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions