NWPX
NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.
$131.83
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 126.3% above fair value
You pay
$131.83
Bear
$48.26
Fair
$58.26
Bull
$66.96
Bear
$48.26
-63.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$58.26
-55.8%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$66.96
-49.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
31.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.2%
vs 5.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $60.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $58.26 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions