NWPX
NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.
$110.59
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 97.6% above fair value
You pay
$110.59
Bear
$43.54
Fair
$55.98
Bull
$68.42
Bear
$43.54
-60.6%
$3.11 × 14x
Fair
$55.98
-49.4%
$3.11 × 18x
Bull
$68.42
-38.1%
$3.11 × 22x
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
3.11$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($3.11)
Implied Market Multiple
35.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$60.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
7%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $3.11 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $55.98 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 3.4x.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Price-to-book value of 3.4x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing