NWN
Northwest Natural Holding Company
$48.80
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 10.1% above fair value
You pay
$48.80
Bear
$38.78
Fair
$44.32
Bull
$49.86
Bear
$38.78
-20.5%
$2.77 × 14x P/E
Fair
$44.32
-9.2%
$2.77 × 16x P/E
Bull
$49.86
+2.2%
$2.77 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
2.77$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$52.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
16%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.77, the base-case value is $44.32 per share. DDM cross-check: $28.53.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $28.53 (below our primary estimate by 36%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples