NWN
Northwest Natural Holding Company
$49.93
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.4% above fair value
You pay
$49.93
Bear
$40.69
Fair
$46.51
Bull
$52.32
Bear
$40.69
-18.5%
$2.77 × 14x P/E
Fair
$46.51
-6.9%
$2.77 × 16x P/E
Bull
$52.32
+4.8%
$2.77 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $55.25 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.51 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $28.39 (below our primary estimate by 36%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples