NWL Newell Brands Inc.
$5.16
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 70.0% below fair value

You pay $5.16
Bear $14.19
Fair $17.23
Bull $20.26
Bear $14.19 +174.9% $1.25 × 14x P/E
Fair $17.23 +233.8% $1.25 × 17x P/E
Bull $20.26 +292.7% $1.25 × 20x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 4.1x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $5.15 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $17.23 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $5.15 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 313% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples