NWL
Newell Brands Inc.
$3.64
Distressed or Transitioning
75%
Current FCF × Depressed Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 182.7% above fair value
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
FCF continues to decline, 4x multiple
Fair
$1.29
-64.6%
Current FCF stabilizes, 6x multiple
Bull
$0.00
-100.0%
Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 8x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
411.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Current FCF × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $5.15 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $1.29 per share.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Debt per share ($12.82) is more than half the stock price. With this much debt on a struggling business, the paths to recovery for shareholders are narrow.
Wall Street's average price target is $5.15 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case