NWL
Newell Brands Inc.
$5.16
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 70.0% below fair value
You pay
$5.16
Bear
$14.19
Fair
$17.23
Bull
$20.26
Bear
$14.19
+174.9%
$1.25 × 14x P/E
Fair
$17.23
+233.8%
$1.25 × 17x P/E
Bull
$20.26
+292.7%
$1.25 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
4.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $5.15 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $17.23 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $5.15 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 313% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples