NWE
Northwestern Energy Group Inc
$76.10
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 61.8% above fair value
You pay
$76.10
Bear
$41.16
Fair
$47.04
Bull
$52.92
Bear
$41.16
-45.9%
$2.94 × 14x P/E
Fair
$47.04
-38.2%
$2.94 × 16x P/E
Bull
$52.92
-30.5%
$2.94 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
2.94$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
25.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$72.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
35%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.94, the base-case value is $47.04 per share. DDM cross-check: $40.01.
Warnings
The company pays out 91% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $72.33 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples