NVT
nVent Electric plc
$164.66
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 107.8% above fair value
You pay
$164.66
Bear
$46.92
Fair
$79.23
Bull
$114.39
Bear
$46.92
-71.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$79.23
-51.9%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$114.39
-30.5%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
81.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $180.29 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $79.23 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $180.29 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions