NVT
nVent Electric plc
$146.13
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 166.7% above fair value
You pay
$146.13
Bear
$33.08
Fair
$54.79
Bull
$78.41
Bear
$33.08
-77.4%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$54.79
-62.5%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$78.41
-46.3%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.3%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
62.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
26.3%
vs 14.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$203.86
Divergence from AlphaVal
73%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $54.79 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $203.86 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 73% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions