NVT
nVent Electric plc
$158.05
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 93.7% above fair value
You pay
$158.05
Bear
$48.33
Fair
$81.61
Bull
$117.83
Bear
$48.33
-69.4%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$81.61
-48.4%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$117.83
-25.4%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
78.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
29.5%
vs 14.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $189.82 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $81.61 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $189.82 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions