NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
$44.96
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 24.8% above fair value
You pay
$44.96
Bear
$28.97
Fair
$36.02
Bull
$47.22
Bear
$28.97
-35.6%
8% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Fair
$36.02
-19.9%
7% rev growth, 28% terminal margin
Bull
$47.22
+5.0%
9% rev growth, 32% terminal margin
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (7%) × margin expansion to 28%
Terminal Value % of EV
57%
Implied Market Multiple
4.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.00 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.02 per share.
Warnings
Our estimate assumes profit margins grow from 9% to 28% over 10 years. If that improvement stalls, the company is worth considerably less.
Gross margin of 81% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Wall Street's average price target is $47.00 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from DKK into USD using USDDKK at 0.1557 USD per DKK.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep