NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
$50.96
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 26.6% below fair value
You pay
$50.96
Bear
$59.54
Fair
$69.47
Bull
$79.39
Bear
$59.54
+16.8%
$3.81 × 18x P/E
Fair
$69.47
+36.3%
$3.81 × 21x P/E
Bull
$79.39
+55.8%
$3.81 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $45.00 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $69.47 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 99% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $855.78 (above our primary estimate by 970%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $45.00 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 78% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from DKK into USD using USDDKK at 0.1524 USD per DKK.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples