NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
$43.20
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 41.9% below fair value
You pay
$43.20
Bear
$63.69
Fair
$74.30
Bull
$84.92
Bear
$63.69
+47.4%
$3.54 × 18x P/E
Fair
$74.30
+72.0%
$3.54 × 21x P/E
Bull
$84.92
+96.6%
$3.54 × 24x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.0x
3.54$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (39 analysts)
$44.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
66%
Summary
Applying a 21x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.54, the base-case value is $74.30 per share. DDM cross-check: $2920.74.
Warnings
The company pays out 100% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $2920.74 (above our primary estimate by 3831%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $44.67 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 66% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from DKK into USD using USDDKK at 0.1536 USD per DKK.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples