NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
$194.83
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 6.7% below fair value
You pay
$194.83
Bear
$117.43
Fair
$208.92
Bull
$323.08
Bear
$117.43
-39.7%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$208.92
+7.2%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$323.08
+65.8%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
50.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.5%
vs 20.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $316.79 from 79 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $208.92 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $316.79 (from 79 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions