NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
$233.95
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 54.7% above fair value
You pay
$233.95
Bear
$84.98
Fair
$151.19
Bull
$233.81
Bear
$84.98
-63.7%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$151.19
-35.4%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$233.81
-0.1%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
61.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
26.0%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (79 analysts)
$338.96
Divergence from AlphaVal
55%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $151.19 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $338.96 (from 79 analysts). Our estimate is 55% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions