NVAX
Novavax, Inc.
$9.21
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 86.9% below fair value
You pay
$9.21
Bear
$28.91
Fair
$70.37
Bull
$103.73
Bear
$28.91
+213.9%
18% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Fair
$70.37
+664.1%
30% rev growth, 28% terminal margin
Bull
$103.73
+1026.3%
35% rev growth, 32% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
30.0%
28.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (30%) × margin expansion to 28%
Terminal Value % of EV
69%
Implied Market Multiple
0.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$18.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
291%
Summary
Projecting 30% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 0% to 28% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $70.37 per share.
Warnings
Our estimate assumes profit margins grow from 0% to 28% over 10 years. If that improvement stalls, the company is worth considerably less.
Gross margin of 94% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Wall Street's average price target is $18.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 291% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep