NTNX
Nutanix, Inc.
$47.12
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 16.2% below fair value
You pay
$47.12
Bear
$37.43
Fair
$56.21
Bull
$76.73
Bear
$37.43
-20.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$56.21
+19.3%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$76.73
+62.8%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
24.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $56.60 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.21 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 187% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions