NTNX
Nutanix, Inc.
$55.23
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 0.7% below fair value
You pay
$55.23
Bear
$37.04
Fair
$55.63
Bull
$75.93
Bear
$37.04
-32.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$55.63
+0.7%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$75.93
+37.5%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
29.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.2%
vs 14.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $57.13 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $55.63 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 187% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions