NTNX
Nutanix, Inc.
$74.63
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.5% below fair value
You pay
$74.63
Bear
$55.20
Fair
$92.75
Bull
$137.78
Bear
$55.20
-26.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$92.75
+24.3%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$137.78
+84.6%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
31.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.0%
vs 18.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (32 analysts)
$76.11
Divergence from AlphaVal
22%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $92.75 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions