NSP
Insperity, Inc.
$51.40
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.5% below fair value
You pay
$51.40
Bear
$45.92
Fair
$57.40
Bull
$68.89
Bear
$45.92
-10.7%
$3.46 × 13x P/E
Fair
$57.40
+11.7%
$3.46 × 17x P/E
Bull
$68.89
+34.0%
$3.46 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.6x
3.46$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$56.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
2%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.46, the base-case value is $57.40 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples