NSP
Insperity, Inc.
$47.28
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.5% below fair value
You pay
$47.28
Bear
$46.40
Fair
$57.99
Bull
$69.59
Bear
$46.40
-1.9%
$3.64 × 13x P/E
Fair
$57.99
+22.7%
$3.64 × 17x P/E
Bull
$69.59
+47.2%
$3.64 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $48.67 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $57.99 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples