NSA
National Storage Affiliates Trust
$42.71
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 40.7% below fair value
You pay
$42.71
Bear
$59.39
Fair
$72.05
Bull
$84.71
Bear
$59.39
+39.0%
$3.41 FFO × 23x
Fair
$72.05
+68.7%
$3.41 FFO × 29x
Bull
$84.71
+98.3%
$3.41 FFO × 34x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($3.41) × industrial P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
12.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.50 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $72.05 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $53.75 (36% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.50 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 137% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify