NSA
National Storage Affiliates Trust
$43.40
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 39.5% below fair value
You pay
$43.40
Bear
$58.98
Fair
$71.71
Bull
$84.43
Bear
$58.98
+35.9%
$3.39 FFO × 21x
Fair
$71.71
+65.2%
$3.39 FFO × 26x
Bull
$84.43
+94.5%
$3.39 FFO × 31x
Adjust Assumptions
26.1x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($3.39) × industrial P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
12.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$45.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
58%
Summary
At $3.39 FFO/share with a 26x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $71.71 per share. Dividend yield: 4.0%. DDM cross-check: $32.49.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $32.49 (55% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $45.33 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 58% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify