NRDS
NerdWallet, Inc.
$9.79
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 73.8% below fair value
You pay
$9.79
Bear
$26.99
Fair
$37.40
Bull
$48.01
Bear
$26.99
+175.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$37.40
+282.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$48.01
+390.4%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
5.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-9.1%
vs 11.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$13.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
181%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $37.40 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 59% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $13.33 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 181% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions