NRC National Research Corporation
$18.54
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 18.3% above fair value

You pay $18.54
Bear $12.54
Fair $15.68
Bull $18.81
Bear $12.54 -32.4% $1.25 × 10x P/E
Fair $15.68 -15.5% $1.25 × 12x P/E
Bull $18.81 +1.5% $1.25 × 15x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.8x

Summary

Applying a 12x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.25, the base-case value is $15.68 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 141%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 115% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples