NPO
EnPro Industries, Inc.
$307.68
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 202.4% above fair value
You pay
$307.68
Bear
$77.48
Fair
$101.76
Bull
$123.95
Bear
$77.48
-74.8%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$101.76
-66.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$123.95
-59.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
40.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
20.5%
vs 7.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$370.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
72%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $101.76 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 33% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $370.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 72% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions