NPO
EnPro Industries, Inc.
$322.68
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 143.0% above fair value
You pay
$322.68
Bear
$99.72
Fair
$132.76
Bull
$162.95
Bear
$99.72
-69.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$132.76
-58.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$162.95
-49.5%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
49.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.2%
vs 7.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $327.50 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $132.76 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 33% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $327.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 74% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions