NPO
EnPro Industries, Inc.
$308.25
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 135.8% above fair value
You pay
$308.25
Bear
$98.43
Fair
$130.74
Bull
$160.26
Bear
$98.43
-68.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$130.74
-57.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$160.26
-48.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
47.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $315.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $130.74 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 33% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $315.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 73% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions