NPCPF
Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd.
$6.69
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.2% below fair value
You pay
$6.69
Bear
$4.97
Fair
$7.45
Bull
$9.89
Bear
$4.97
-25.7%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$7.45
+11.4%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$9.89
+47.7%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
19.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.9%
vs 10.0% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $7.45 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from JPY into USD using USDJPY at 0.0063 USD per JPY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions