NOV
NOV Inc.
$19.03
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 27.3% below fair value
You pay
$19.03
Bear
$14.81
Fair
$26.19
Bull
$40.49
Bear
$14.81
-22.2%
FCF $670M × 10x
Fair
$26.19
+37.6%
FCF $864M × 13x
Bull
$40.49
+112.8%
FCF $1058M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
8.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $20.78 from 58 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.19 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $20.78 (from 58 analysts). Our estimate is 40% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential