NOV
NOV Inc.
$21.39
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 30.1% below fair value
You pay
$21.39
Bear
$17.34
Fair
$30.59
Bull
$47.24
Bear
$17.34
-18.9%
FCF $697M × 10x
Fair
$30.59
+43.0%
FCF $899M × 13x
Bull
$47.24
+120.9%
FCF $1102M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (58 analysts)
$21.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
40%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $30.59 per share. Range: $17.34 (bear) to $47.24 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.80 (from 58 analysts). Our estimate is 40% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential