NOMD
Nomad Foods Limited
$10.54
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 44.9% below fair value
You pay
$10.54
Bear
$15.75
Fair
$19.12
Bull
$22.49
Bear
$15.75
+49.5%
$1.04 × 15x P/E
Fair
$19.12
+81.5%
$1.04 × 18x P/E
Bull
$22.49
+113.5%
$1.04 × 22x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
18.4x
1.04$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$12.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
53%
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.04, the base-case value is $19.12 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $12.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 53% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1448 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples